You’ve probably noticed that unleaded gas prices have climbed sharply. The conflict in Iran has disrupted the energy market, and if you heat your home with propane, you may be wondering whether any of this is going to show up in your next delivery bill.
Here’s the honest, data-based answer: the worst-case global headlines won’t translate directly to your bill. If you’re curious why, keep reading.
Here’s how global energy events reach your propane tank:
The U.S. produces most of its own propane domestically as a byproduct of natural gas processing and petroleum refining. Your propane didn’t come from the Middle East. But propane pricing is still connected to global markets through a mechanism that’s worth understanding.
Roughly 27% of global LPG exports (the category that includes propane) normally transit the Strait of Hormuz (https://deltaliquidenergy.com/how-the-war-in-iran-affects-propane-prices/). When that shipping route is disrupted, international buyers who normally receive propane through the Gulf have to find it somewhere else. Many of them turn to the United States, which has become one of the world’s largest propane exporters. When those buyers increase purchases from U.S. suppliers, domestic supply tightens, and that puts upward pressure on domestic retail prices even though the propane itself never went anywhere near Iran. Bloomberg
Right now, several things limit the impact of international disruptions on US propane customers and in Missouri, specifically.
The US is more insulated than most
In the first week of the current conflict, U.S. natural gas prices rose about 7%, compared to 54% in Asia and 63% in Europe. Congress.gov That gap reflects a fundamental difference: the U.S. has large domestic production and storage infrastructure that Asia and Europe don’t have. Missouri also sits squarely in the middle of the US domestic supply network.
U.S. propane prices have risen about 18% as of the first week of the conflict, compared to a 34% increase in crude oil over the same period. LP Gas Propane price increases lag oil significantly, which is due to maintaining high inventory levels.
The U.S. produces a LOT of propane and stores it for a rainy day. When those rainy days happen, we’ve built up enough supply that your day-to-day price stays mostly the same and fluctuates most directly with the seasons.
U.S. propane inventories and production entering the Iran conflict were at very high levels LP Gas, which means even sustained export demand would take time to noticeably draw down domestic supply. We are also approaching the shoulder season, the period between heating season and summer demand, when propane consumption drops naturally, giving inventories more time to absorb the pressure.
None of this means prices are immune. But it does mean you probably won’t see the sort of immediate impact on your propane bill like you do at the gas station.
What would make it worse
The single biggest question is how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to commercial shipping, because international customers will continue to source propane from other locations including the U.S. Historical data from previous Iran-related escalations shows a consistent pattern: sharp oil price increases followed by stabilization once immediate supply risk becomes clearer. Middle East Briefing The June 2025 conflict briefly spiked oil prices and reversed when the ceasefire held. The current situation is more severe, but the same patterns will probably repeat.
A prolonged conflict could incentivize more international purchases of U.S. propane Chatham House, which could create more local pricing increases over time as the U.S. supply draws down. Switching supplies is expensive and time-consuming, so even if the conflict ends tomorrow, international purchases could still remain high until the cost and effort of switching is lower than the cost of doing nothing.
What this means for you as a Brooks Gas customer
Missouri propane customers are among the most insulated in the world from this disruption. Domestic production is high, inventories are high, and the shoulder season is arriving. That could change if the conflict drags on and export demand persistently draws down U.S. reserves of propane.
What hasn’t changed: planning ahead is always a good bet. Pre-buy programs and budget plans protect you against price spikes whether it’s a Missouri winter cold snap, a pipeline issue, or events on the other side of the world. If you’re concerned about what this means for your costs next heating season, we’re here and ready to help you plan.
Questions about your delivery or pricing?
- Marshfield: 417.468.2549
- Conway: 417.589.8961
- Seymour: 417.935.4100
- 24/7 Emergencies: 417.468.5668
Sources: LP Gas Magazine — U.S. propane market impact analysis (March 6, 2026); Congressional Research Service — Strait of Hormuz crisis energy impact; Goldman Sachs Research — oil price scenario analysis; Congressional Budget Office / EIA — U.S. natural gas price comparison data; Bloomberg — U.S. propane price surge analysis (March 18, 2026); NBC News — Iran war economic impact (March 22, 2026).
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